Trading Update: Wednesday April 30, 2025
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Yesterday, it formed a bull bar closing on its high, testing near the 5,600 round number.
- While this is good for the bulls, the past two days have had a lot of overlapping price action, and the market is testing resistance.
- The Bulls hope this will be the start of the second leg after April 6th. However, last week was an outside bar on the weekly chart. There’s an increased risk that this week will have a lot of trading range price action.
- This means we’ll probably get a pullback over the next few days and try to close below the week’s open. This would create bad follow-through on the weekly chart, which is expected following last week’s outside up.
- The Bears won a failed breakout of the April 9th high in a test of the March low breakout point. Next, they hope to get a strong reversal and a test down to the April low.
- If the Bears get a test down to the April low, they need more signs of strength. At a minimum, the Bears need Bear Bars closing on their lows, ideally a series of Bear Bars closing on their lows. Even then, the odds would favor a leg in a trading range, not the start of a strong sell-off to the April 7th low.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today, gapped down during the open of the U.S. session, the gap down is strong enough that the odds favored at least a little bit of follow-through on the open.
- The sell-off down to bar 6 is good for the bears. However, it has a lot of overlap and tails below bars, such as bar 1, bar 3, and bar 6. This increases the odds that the open is probably forming a trading range.
- As of Bar 6, there is little to no tail above the open of Bar 1, which means that the open is almost the high of the day. This increases the odds that we’re probably going to go above the open of Bar one and create a larger tail above the bar.
- The reason that we’ll probably go above the open because most of the time on the daily chart, you do not have a shaved top or shaved body. Usually, there’s at least some sort of prominent tail.
- While the bears have done a good job with the sell-off, it’s more likely a bear leg in a trading range than the start of a strong bear trend. That means that we’re probably going to start to go sideways to up and test closer to the moving average and possibly the one high.
- The market may have to form a trading range and go sideways for many bars, developing enough buying pressure before the bulls can reach the one high.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD continues to go sideways in a tight trading range following last week’s two-bar bear breakout period.
- It’s possible that the daily chart goes sideways until it reaches the moving average, which is a likely magnet for the market to test.
- The Bears need a clear downside breakout with follow-through below the moving average. Without it, the odds favor continued sideways to up trading.
- Although the daily chart rally that began in February is getting climactic, with many strong bull bars forming a wedge top, the Bears have not done enough so far. Because of this, the odds are increasing that we will continue to go sideways for the next several days.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
