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Emini Sideways to up Likely

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Trading Update: Monday July 29, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bull inside the bar last Friday, closing below its midpoint. This increases the odds of sellers above last Friday’s high.
  • Because the risk is getting big for the bears and the daily chart is at the 5,500-round number. This increases the odds of a pullback and a couple of legs sideways to up.
  • The Bears have done a great job with the selloff down to the 5,500-support level, which created a strong trendline break for the bull channel.
  • Because the channel up is tight, the bears may need to create a major trend reversal before they can get a second leg down. This means that the bears may need to form a lower high major trend reversal before bears are willing to bet on a second leg down.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The first 12 bars of the day have seen a lot of trading range price action on the Emini. The Bears want the rally to bar 7 to form a double top with last Friday’s bar 48 high.
  • Next, they want a break below the neckline (Last Friday’s bar 78) and the market to fall for a measured move down.
  • The bears formed a second-leg trap with the rally up to bar 7. The bar 8-9 bear breakout is strong enough for a second-leg down.
  • The bears are hopeful that bar 7 will remain the high of the day. As of bar 12, there is probably at least a 50% chance that bar 7 will remain the high of the day.
  • If the bears can form more follow-through selling and breakout far below the bar 2 low, the probability of bar 7 being the high of the day will increase.
  • Traders should pay attention to last Friday’s low as the market may try to test it today.
  • Bar 13 is a strong bear breakout closing on its low. That increases the odds that bar 7 will remain the high of the day.
  • Bar 15 is a strong two-bar reversal after the bar 13 downside breakout. This is a possible 2nd leg trap for the bears and increases the risk of a reversal up and a trading range.
  • Because of today’s trading range price action, traders should pay attention to the open of the day.
  • Bar 20, the bears are increasing the selling pressure and getting a downside breakout. This increases the odds of a measured move based on the opening range and a test down to last Friday’s low.  
  • Bar 25 is a large climactic bear breakout and a possible leg three. This increases the risk of a reversal up lasting a couple of legs.
  • Bar 30, the bulls formed a very strong reversal up after a parabolic wedge with bar 25.  The odds favor the low of the day being in. The market may test off to yesterday’s high.  

Friday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart HL DB Then Parabolic Wedge Top and Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed a strong rally in July however it is getting a deep pullback. This is because the daily chart has been in an overall trading range for the past several months.
  • The bear formed a 6-bar microchannel down to the July 24th low. This increased the odds of a second leg down.
  • Yesterday, an outside down day was formed at support, the midpoint of the July rally. This increases the odds of the outside down bar getting bad follow-through and getting a couple of legs sideways to up.
  • While the daily chart is at the support (midpoint of July), the bulls need to stabilize the market and add to the buying pressure.
  • The channel down is tight, which increases the odds of sellers above and sideways.
  • Overall, traders should expect tomorrow to have disappointing follow-through over the next day or two.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Wedge Top and Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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