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Emini Testing Down to 5,200 Round Number

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Trading Update: Friday April 18, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Daily chart is tested down to the 5,200 round number, near the midpoint of the month-long trading range on the daily chart.
  • The bulls are hopeful that buyers will be near the round number and that today will not close as a strong bear bar.
  • The Globex chart has sold off since yesterday’s Globex open.
  • The bears want today to continue to sell off and close on its low. That would increase the risk of lower prices.
  • The bears ultimately want to reach the April low. If the bulls are going to prevent this, they need to create buying pressure and prevent consecutive strong bear trend bars from closing on their lows.
  • Today and tomorrow’s closings are important. The bulls ideally need to prevent today from closing on its low. The bulls must also stop the bears from getting a strong follow-through bar.
  • The strong today and tomorrow look for the bears, the more likely the market will go lower.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Today gapped down and sold off, forming a bear trend from the open down to bar 11.
  • The selloff is strong, increasing the risk of a bear trend or a trading range day, and not a bull trend day.
  • The bulls need to build up enough buying pressure if they are going to get a reversal. This means that the first reversal up will likely be minor.
  • The market is far from the moving average. This increases the risk of profit taking by the bears and the market going sideways to up.
  • If the market goes sideways around bar 12, it will quickly drag the moving average down to the current price, satisfying the need for a moving average test.
  • The selloff is getting extreme, increasing the odds of a sideways trading lasting one to two hours.

Last Thursday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Sell Climax and Then Bull Channel

Al created the SP500 Emini chart.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from last Thursday, before Good Friday holiday close. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500-Emini-5-Min-Chart-Bear-Trend-from-Open-Wedge-Bottom-and-EOD-Bull-Trend

Richard created the SP500 Emini chart – Al travelling.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD broke above the April 11th high, creating another leg up for the bulls.
  • The rally is getting climactic with several legs up and is forming a wedge top. This increases the risk of a pullback that will soon last a few bars.
  • Today’s bull breakout bar is climactic. There is little to no tail below the bar. This increases the odds of a buy climax and the need for a pullback soon.
  • Overall, the rally has been strong for the bulls but is now getting climactic. This increases the odds of a pullback lasting at least a couple of bars sideways to down.
  • The bears need to increase the selling pressure to get a reversal down. At a minimum, the bears need to get bear bars closing below their midpoints and, ideally, their lows.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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