Market Overview: EURUSD Forex
The EURUSD is testing the January low and the bull trend line. Bulls want the bull trend line or the November low area to act as support. The next targets for bears are the November and August lows.
EURUSD Forex market
The Weekly EURUSD chart
- This week’s EURUSD candlestick was a big bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below, testing the January low and the bull trend line.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate follow-through selling to test the 20-week EMA, or whether the market stalls around the December 24 high or the 20-week EMA, forming a higher low and setting up a retest higher in the weeks ahead.
- Bulls see the current move as a bear leg testing the January and November lows.
- They want the bull trend line or the November low area to act as support.
- Bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (August 1, November 15, and March 3).
- They hope the bear leg will be weak and sideways, with overlapping candlesticks, prominent lower tails, and bull bars.
- Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
- Bears want a reversal from a wedge top (July 1, September 17, and January 27).
- This week they got a retest of the January low and the bull trend line.
- The next targets for bears are the November and August lows.
- Bears want a strong breakout below the 38-week trading range, followed by a measured move based on the height of the range.
- They need consecutive strong bear bars with sustained follow-through selling breaking below the August low to shift the market to Always In Short.
- If the market trades higher, bears want the 20-week EMA or the February 10 high to act as resistance, forming a lower high and a double top bear flag.
- Price remains within the 38-week trading range. Until there is a clear breakout with strong follow-through, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third.
- The market is trading slightly below the middle of the range, which can act as a magnet.
- Traders will watch whether bears can generate follow-through selling to break below the November low, or whether the market stalls around the lower third of the trading range instead.
- The recent geopolitical tensions may increase volatility.
The Daily EURUSD chart
- EURUSD traded down early in the week, followed by a pullback and a small sideways to down leg from midweek onward.
- Previously, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate further follow-through selling toward the January low, or whether the pullback would remain mostly sideways, followed by bull bars retesting the January 27 high.
- Bears got a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal after the trend channel line overshoot on January 27, and a lower high major trend reversal on February 10.
- The next targets for bears are the November and August lows.
- Bears want a strong breakout below the 38-week trading range, followed by a measured move based on the height of the range, which would take the market near the May 12 low.
- If the market trades higher, bears want the 20-day EMA or the February 26 high to act as resistance, forming a lower high and a double top bear flag.
- Bears need consecutive strong bear bars breaking below the November and August lows to flip the market into Always In Short.
- Bulls want the bull trend line or the November and August lows to act as support.
- They hope the move will be weak and sideways, with overlapping ranges, prominent tails below bars, and strong bull bars.
- Bulls see the current move as forming the third leg of a wedge bull flag (August 1, November 5, and March 3).
- Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
- EURUSD remains in a trading range. Until there is a strong breakout with sustained follow-through, traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
- For now, traders will watch whether bears can generate further follow-through selling toward the November or August lows, or whether the market stalls around the November low area, followed by a retest of the 20-day EMA in the weeks ahead.
- If the market trades higher, traders will watch the strength of the move — whether it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs) or weak, with prominent tails above bars stalling around the 20-day EMA or the February 26 high area.
- The recent geopolitical tensions may increase volatility.
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