Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
This week the Gold GC-mini ranged to the lows of the initial parabolic correction. Daily bears achieved a rare 8 day losing streak, creating an «always in short» environment. Take note that bulls were able to put significant tails on all of those 8 bear bars. Weekly bears closed with confidence beneath the moving average, only the 2nd time since February of 2024. Bulls did succeed at putting a tail on this week’s bar in hopes of creating a double bottom. Bulls are hoping to define a range as opposed to allow a runaway bear trend. The tail beneath this week’s bar was created perhaps from a combination of:
A) stuck bears at the bottom of the parabolic correction buying back their shorts for a full break. even.
B) Bears taking profits at a sensible point of market structure.
C) Bulls waiting at the parabolic correction lows in order to buy again at a discount.
D) Bulls trying to defend the range from becoming a full blown bear trend.
Bullish case: If this is just a deep pullback in a strong bull trend (which is still the dominant higher-timeframe view), we should look for a «High 1» or «High 2» setup on the daily chart as buyers look to get in at a discount.
Bearish case: If this week’s large bear bar gets follow-through selling, the bears will solidify control, and we could see a deeper correction.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Decisive bear bar closing well beneath the moving average.
- Bears test the 50% mark of the parabolic rip for the 2nd time.
- Bulls prevented bears from closing beneath that 50% mark.
- Bears want to close another bear bar close to its low. Most of the recent bear bars have significant tails beneath.
- Bulls want to buy as bears take profits or escape from pain trades.
- Bulls want to defend the lows of the parabolic correction.
- Bears disrupt bullish market structure by taking out the neckline from the week of February 8th.
- 3 consecutive bear bars create «always in short» price action.
- Bulls want to continue the moving average buying opportunity.
The Daily Gold chart
- Bears printed 8 straight losing bars. This is a rare occurrence.
- The past 7 bars all closed beneath the moving average.
- Bears who got trapped selling at the low of the parabolic correction now just got a full break even.
- Bears succeeded in breaking to the downside in what was previously a 14 session, wide bear channel.
- Potential reverse cup and handle pattern forming.
- Head and shoulders pattern with the bar dating 3/2/2026 as the head.
- Bears disrupt bullish market structure by destroying the necklines of both 2/6 and 2/17.
- 8 consecutive bear bars create «always in short» price action.
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