Trading Update: Thursday May 11, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The market gapped up on the open and sold off for the first 40 bars before getting a rally into the close. This formed a bear doji bar on the daily chart.
- The daily chart is in a tight trading range in breakout mode. This means traders should assume that the probability is close to 50% for both the bulls and the bears. Emini likely to continue sideways.
- The Bulls got a second leg up following last Friday’s (May 5th) bull breakout.
- Bears sold the May 5th high and scaled in higher. They are trapped and trying to exit back at the May 5th high.
- There are trapped bulls that bought the May 1st low and scaled in lower. They are also trapped and will likely sell out of longs back at the May 1st low.
- Overall, traders should assume the market is neutral and in breakout mode. This means the probability is close to 50% for both the bulls and the bears. Until a clear breakout with follow-through, traders should assume that the market will continue to go sideways.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 15 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market rallied back to the highs of yesterday’s open, where it found resistance and sold off. There were trapped bulls who used the Globex rally late last night to sell out of longs.
- The bears got a downside breakout during the early morning hours, and now the market is back to the middle of a trading range that began on May 7th.
- The U.S. Session open will probably open near yesterday’s close.
- Traders should assume that the first 6-12 bars will likely go sideways. This means most traders should wait for at least 6 bars unless they are comfortable with limit order trading.
- Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that typically begins before the end of the second hour after forming a double top/bottom or wedge top/bottom.
- Lastly, because of the daily chart, traders should assume that the day session will have a lot of trading range trading.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini sold off during bar 1 and got a second leg down. However, the selloff looked weak and had several overlapping bars, increasing the risk of a trading range.
- The bulls got an upside breakout during 7:50 AM PT, and the market began to channel up, testing the open of the day.
- As of bar 45 (10:15 AM PT), the market is in a trading range and will probably breakout up or down before the end of the day.
- The bulls want the market to continue to form higher lows and get an upside breakout. The bears want the opposite and for the market to reverse back down to the low of the day.
- Traders should assume that a trading range is most likely until there is a clear breakout with follow-through.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Richard created the SP500 Emini charts (Al on leave).
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is trying to get another bear close below the moving average to add to the selling pressure.
- The market has been in a bull channel since March 24th and the odds are it will transition into a trading range. This means that all of the higher lows mentioned in the chart above are targets for the bears.
- The bears still need a clear breakout with follow-through before traders conclude that the market is Always In Short.
- The bulls will see the market being below the moving average as an opportunity to buy at a discounted price, therefore they will buy hoping for an upside breakout and bull trend resumption.
- Overall, traders should assume that the odds favor more sideways trading.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Richard created the SP500 Emini charts (Al on leave).
End of day video review
Live stream video review with Brad Wolff. Here is YouTube link:
Emini End of Day Video Review for Thursday May 11, 2023
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.