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Emini Bulls Giving Up below Last Friday’s Low

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Trading Update: Monday January 27, 2025

Emini end of day video review

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S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bear reversal bar last Friday, which is a sign that the bulls’ momentum is slowing down. The bulls are giving up below last Friday’s low, which means there is an increased risk of a deeper pullback than the bulls want due to the market being high in a trading range.
  • The rally from the January 13th low is a 9-bar bull micro channel. This increases the odds of sellers above last Friday’s low and a second leg up.
  • The market is close to the December high, likely resistance level. This increases the odds of the bulls being disappointed due to the high market in a trading range.
  • The bears are hopeful that last Friday’s high is a double top with the December all-time high. Next, the bears want Monday to lead to a strong reversal down.
  • If today formed a strong bear trend bar closing on its low, that would increase the odds of sellers at last Friday’s low and a 2nd leg down.
  • Today will be an important bar. The bears have a low probability of stopping entry below last Friday’s high, and the odds favor buyers below. However, if the bears can get a strong downside breakout bar closing near its low, that would trap the bulls and increase the odds of a second leg down.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Globex market opened on Sunday with a large gap down, creating a sell-the-close bear trend.
  • As of Sunday evening, the Globex market is down 73 points, creating a strong bear breakout below last Friday’s low. This is a warning that bulls are giving up, and the market is likely to get a second leg down.
  • The bulls are hopeful Sunday’s reversal down will fail and lead to a rally today or tomorrow.
  • If the bulls will get a second leg up above last Friday’s high, they need to stop selling first.
  • The bears will try to create as much distance below last Friday’s low as possible.
  • Because Sunday’s selloff is already down 1.2%, there is an increased risk that today’s U.S. Session will not form a strong bear trend day. Note that I am writing this Sunday, and the price action could look very different on the open.
  • Traders should assume that today, there will be a lot of trading range price action on the open. There is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open up or down.
  • The most important thing on the open is to be patient and not in a rush. 

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Buy Climax Then Lower High MTR

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Buy Climax and Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed a large bull breakout bar last Friday. While this is a sign that the bulls are gaining control, the odds still favor a trading range, not a bull trend.
  • Last Friday is a possible parabolic wedge (January 15th, January 22nd), which increases the odds of two small legs sideways to down.
  • Last Friday, there was also a tail above the bar, which is a sign of weakness by the bulls.
  • Today will probably be a disappointment bar and not form a strong follow-through bar. This increases the odds of a pullback lasting a couple of legs and the EURUSD going sideways for a day or two.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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