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Emini Buyers below Yesterday’s Low

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Trading Update: Wednesday May 8, 2024

End of day video review

Brad Wolff Emini EOD Review

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a doji bar yesterday, following Friday’s upside breakout.
  • The Bears are hopeful that yesterday is the start of a 2nd leg trap with the April 29th high.
  • The problem with the 2nd leg trap argument is that the bulls broke above the neckline  (April 29th) of a double-bottom. This increases the odds of a measured move from the April 19th low to the April 29th high, which projects up to 5,300.
  • The Bears need to get 2-3 consecutive bear bars closing on their lows if they are going to have a shot at getting the reversal down and 2nd leg trap.
  • The odds favor buyers below yesterday’s low and a second leg up. The market may have to retest the April 29th breakout point before the bulls get their measured move up.
  • The bears want to form a second entry short and reverse far below the April 29th breakout point.  

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 19 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market went sideways in a tight trading range for most of the overnight session (15-minute chart).
  • The bears ended up getting a 2nd leg down following yesterday’s  2:00 PM EST bear breakout during the early morning hours.
  • Traders should expect a trading range open and be cautious trading the first 6 bars.
  • Most traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars on the open.
  • There is a 20% chance of a trend from the open and an 80% chance of a trading range open.
  • Traders should pay attention to yesterday’s low as it will probably get tested and is, therefore, a magnet.

Emini Intra-Day Update

  • The bulls formed consecutive bull bars on the open, with both closing at or above their midpoints. This increases the odds of a second leg up and possible measured move up of the open of bar 1 and close of bar 2.
  • With bars 1-2, the odds favor a test of yesterday’s low.  
  • Bar 4, the bulls are creating a bull trend from the open. This increases the odds of today being either a bull trend or a trading range day and not a bear trend.
  • In general, there is a 50% chance that the initial move on the open is in the wrong direction and reverses. There is an 80% chance of at least a minor reversal.
  • As of bar 4, the Bulls have done a good job, and the odds favor a second leg up.
  • The rally on the open (bar 4) is strong enough that the downside is probably limited. Traders should above selling to go short until there is more selling pressure.
  • Bears want a parabolic wedge with 2, 4, and 7. More likely, the reversal down will be minor and form a pullback. Odds favor the Bulls getting a second leg up after the rally to bar 7.
  • The market formed a wedge top with bar 16, and the odds favored a pullback to the moving average.
  • The Bears did a good job with the selling pressure down to bar 38. However, the odds favored a trading range and not a bear trend. This means that the market may have to test back up to the bar 16 high later today.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Wedge Bull Flag and Then Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed a bear bar yesterday. However, it failed to close on its low.
  • The Bulls see the upside breakout above the May 2nd high strong enough to lead to a second leg up and a test of the April 10th high.
  • The Bears are hopeful that yesterday is the reversal bar that will lead to a 2nd leg trap, with April 26th as the first leg and May 3rd as the second leg.
  • The odds favor buyers below yesterday’s low. The bear signal bar (yesterday) is small and is not closing on its low.
  • If the bears are going to get a successful 2nd leg trap, they need today to form a strong entry bar closing near its low. Even if the bears are successful with a strong entry bar, they will likely need more follow-through.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Wedge Bull Trend From Open Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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