Trading Update: Friday August 15, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini is beginning to stall above the July high after the August 12th breakout.
- Yesterday formed a high 1 buy signal bar closing on a high. However, there were more sellers than buyers. And the market is reversing down today.
- While the signal bar for the high 1 buy is good for the bulls, the context is not ideal. It’s a 9-bar bull microchannel late in a bull trend, and the odds are the market’s going to pull back and test the prior July all-time high.
- The risk is getting big for the bulls, and therefore, the bulls will likely begin to take partial profits. This will increase the odds that the daily chart begins to go sideways.
- The Bears are hopeful that they will be able to create a successful higher high major trend reversal.
- The reality is that any sell-off that the bears can get here will probably have to form a credible lower high. This means that if the market does get the sell-off from today’s high, it will probably have to pull back, allowing bears the opportunity to enter on a pullback rather than selling the initial bear breakout below today’s high.
- Because the market is high in the range, it’s reasonable for the bulls to exit below any bar closing on its low or an average bar range below any bar. This means that if today closes on its low, it’s reasonable for the bulls to exit below the bar and wait for a couple of legs sideways to down before buying again.
- Overall, the odds are the market’s going to go sideways for several days around this price level. The bears need to use that opportunity to increase the selling pressure and convince traders that they are gaining control. This means that the market is likely to close below the prior July all-time high.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The E-mini gapped up and failed to break out above yesterday’s high. The market formed a strong reversal bar on bar one. That was a credible short, betting on a second leg down. And the Bears got a strong bear breakout on bar 4.
- Bar 4 was a strong enough surprise that it likely needed its second leg down.
- The Bears got a second leg down on 20. However, it was not symmetrical in relation to the bar 1 high and the bar 4 low. That led to a more credible second leg down on 26 and 27.
- The selling has been good for the Bears down to bar 27. However, this looks more like a climactic sell-off in a trading range than the start of a bear trend.
- The strongest form of trends are gradual, and they have symmetry; in other words, the bars creating the trend are average in size and not significantly bigger than the bars to the left. Think about a small pullback trend for example.
- The problem that the Bears have is that these bars are big and climactic, and that increases the risk of profit taking and a trading range more than the start of a bear trend.
- The bulls are trying to get the reversal up on 28. If it closes on its high and the bulls can get follow-through buying, it could lead to a credible low of the day or low of the next couple of hours.
- Today is Friday, and therefore, weekly support and resistance are important. The July high, which was the high two weeks ago, is around 6468. And consequently, it’s a likely magnet for the market to test, which is what’s happening right now.
- The Bulls want to get a close above the high of two weeks ago as a sign of strength.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
