Trading Update: Friday July 18, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The Emini yesterday formed a strong bull bar closing on its high, following yesterday’s strong bull reversal bar after Wednesday’s weak High 1 buy signal bar. Because the High 1 signal bar is weak, the odds favor testing its high over the next several days.
- Yesterday, the bears were trapped selling above Wednesday’s high 1. Because of that, there will be some bears willing to sell more at Tuesday’s large bear bar.
- This increases the chances that today is probably not going to form a strong bull trend bar like yesterday.
- More likely today is probably going to be a disappointment bar for the Bulls and possibly a bear bar closing on its low.
- Overall, the market is probably going to test back to Wednesday’s week buy signal bar high over the next couple of days and allow the scaling bears to make money.
- Wednesday failed to reach the moving average on the daily chart. Since the market’s been away from it for so many bars, the odds are we’re probably going to have to reach it. This lowers the probability of a breakout above Wednesday’s high, leading to a strong rally, and increases the odds of it resulting in a trading range and finding sellers above.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today, a small gap formed on the open and sold off down to bar 3.
- The three consecutive bear bars on the open were strong enough for a second leg down in the test of the bar 81 close.
- The Bears ended up forming a tight trading range on the open, which led to a bear breakout below 9.
- The gap up on the open led to a failed breakout of the bull channel from yesterday, increasing the chances of a sell-off testing the bottom of the trend line, which is what happened during bar 10.
- The sell-off down to bar 12 is strong and formed a strong breakout bar on the hourly chart.
- This increased the chances that the rally on 13 was likely to be minor and lead to lower prices.
- As of Bar 19, the bulls have a parabolic wedge bottom, and they’re trying to get a reversal up on 20.
- So far, the reversal on 19 and 20 is good for the Bulls, but they need to do more to undo all the selling. Today had a lot of trading range price action, which increases the odds of a reversal up and a test back to yesterday’s 77 low, near the midpoint of the day’s range.
- Because today is Friday, traders have to be mindful of weekly support and resistance. The Bulls want to close above the high of last week, and the Bears want to close below it. Traders also need to be mindful of the possibility of a surprise breakout up or down late in the day, as traders decide on the close of the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Brad created the SP500 E-mini charts – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Brad created the SP500 E-mini charts – Al travelling.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a strong rally up to the July high, which happened late in a bull market, increasing the risk of a reversal down.
- The bears have formed a tight bear channel ever since the July 1st high, and they’re trying to get down to the most recent high or low, the June 19th low.
- The rally up to the July 1st high formed a micro-channel with a series of micro gaps on the way up. This is often a sign of exhaustion and increases the risk of an attempt at a reversal, which is what happened.
- The Bears are hoping that the current sell-off is strong enough to get a reversal down and a test of the May low.
- But the reality is, the channel up to the July 1st high is too tight, and therefore, the current reversal down is probably minor.
- This means that sideways trading is more likely over the next several bars than the price going a lot lower.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
