Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
The NASDAQ E-mini futures week is a bear bar with a good body and prominent tails, and first time at weekly EMA since April.
The daily chart had two legs down to the weekly exponential moving average (EMA).
This month so far is a big bear bar reversing all of October, and a good part of September. It has triggered the October low by going below the October low.
Next week is the last week of the month. The market is in the buy zone of the August close and September open. August is a doji bar, and September is a big surprise bull bar, so likely there are trapped sellers that sold the August close expecting September to be another doji or a bear bar (because a good Q3 quarterly bull bar was unlikely).
NASDAQ 100 E-mini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear bar with good body and prominent tails.
- The market is also at the EMA for the first time since April, more than 20 weeks ago.
- There are likely buyers here.
- At the same time, it is the first time since March, that there are 3 consecutive bear bars, as bad as last week’s bear bar is.
- So, there should be at least a small second leg down.
- There are likely sellers above this week’s open/high, as there were likely buyers at last week’s close, expecting a bull bar this week. This could be around where the 2nd leg down starts.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- Last week ended with a bad buy signal bar on Friday. Last week’s report said that the market will likely go sideways to the EMA, and both bulls and bears will try to form a good signal bar.
- Monday triggers the doji buy signal bar, and reverses as a bear bar. Tuesday is another good bear bar. Wednesday is a doji bull bar with a tail above.
- Thursday gaps up, goes above the EMA, but then sells off to end as a big outside down bear bar closing below weekly EMA. Friday is a bull bar with big tails at the weekly EMA.
- If bulls could have had a good buy signal bar Friday, they could have started a leg up to the daily EMA.
- It’s still possible that bulls will manage a leg up from this buy signal bar. Given the strength of the bear bar on Thursday, it is more likely there will need to be at least a small second leg down. So, it’s possible Monday is a bear bar or has a long tail below.
- As mentioned in last week’s report, the market will likely transition into a trading range between the daily and weekly EMA, before deciding whether to go above or below it.
- The market is visiting the open bull body gap from August 28 high close. Bulls would like to keep the bull body gap open, while bears want to close the body gap, showing that the market has transitioned into a trading range.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
