Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures March 2025 is big bear trend bear bar at EMA – exponential moving average. It is a big bar compared to recent months save August 2024. It is a good entry bar to a weak February sell signal bar.
While this is the monthly report for March, so much has happened in the short new month so far this week, that it overshadows what has happened in March. The bull body gap with December 2021 has likely closed with the April month so far, the word likely because we are only four days into the new month, and bulls can buy to close back above December 2021 close.
On the yearly chart (see inset in the monthly chart below), the market has reversed the bull bar of 2024 in a matter of 2 months. The report from just 3 weeks ago had shown the yearly chart, and bears who had sold the 2022 high or 2023 close and scaled in higher at the 2024 close were at breakeven – approx. the midpoint of the 2024 bull bar. Well, now those bears have made money as the market is below the 2022 bear high, the 2023 bull close, and the 2024 low. By going below the low of 2024, this year is no longer an inside bar and has triggered a bad sell signal bar (i.e. 2024).
So, the question is where will the buyers come in? Technically, there are buyers below strong bull bars or a bad sell signal bar, so there could be buyers below the 2024 yearly bar, where the market is currently. It is also a 50% pullback of the range of the entire move from the 2022 low to the 2024 high.
The other place is the midpoint of the 2023 bull bar (shown in the chart below), which would also be approximately the midpoint of the 2022 bear bar. For the rationale, see this report from December 2023.
This week is the biggest bear bar in the recent past, and the month just 4 days in, is already the biggest month in the last 20 bars or so. Can the month get even bigger next week? Likely not. The market may go sideways for a couple of weeks and then decide to revisit the lows.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The March month bar is a big bear trend bar at the monthly EMA.
- The March month is the bear breakout bar representing the leg down from the leg up since August 2024.
- Given the market is at the monthly EMA after 17 bars or so, one would expect it to act as support, and for there to be buyers.
- However, the market this week has fallen far enough below the monthly EMA, that those buyers are likely trapped, and the EMA will now become resistance.
- As mentioned in the summary, the market has likely closed the bull body gap with the 2021 December close. It is only four days into the new month, so it is possible bulls buy to close the month above the December 2021 close and keep the bull body gap open.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is the biggest bear bar in recent past.
- It has broken below multiple support levels to the left shown by the green lines on the chart.
- It has also closed the bull body gap with week of 7-24-2023.
- The previous two-week reports had said that this week is likely to be a bull bar – a bad follow-through to the bear bar of last week at important support – monthly EMA. The report also said that if this week did end as a bear trend bar, then it would be a surprise and lead to another leg down. Well, the market did the less likely thing.
- This is another reason why its likely that the monthly EMA has become resistance.
- So what is likely next week – Big bars usually have bad follow-through, so it is less likely that next week will be another bear follow-through bar.
- The market has also closed all open bull body gaps, so the market should go sideways a bit to figure out what happens next. This is the opportunity for the bulls to start a leg up.
Market analysis reports archive
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