Psychology of Staying in a Trade- Thanks for input.

Looking for input:  This really is about the psychology of a trade; I am bailing too early on a trade too often.

I have studied the videos, am becoming ‘good-ish’ at spotting possible reversal patterns and entry points.  I struggle with the psychological aspect of holding a trade and identifying “valid: exit points.  I recall the lessons, my notes, and am I looking for trading opportunity that will be two times your initial risk.  Trading /es or even /mes if I feel the bars of the mini S&P futures are too big. Trade strategy is to look for reversals. 

Problem 1:  It seems that there are very little that offer a (2:1).  Often it appears that there are resistance points that are well below that margin. In the first example (the yellow arrow represents a financial announcement), so I semi- discount it.  However it sets up a ‘higher low’ and then another ‘higher low’ appears.  The “next logical level” is the first gold line, but often as here, the risk/reward it no better than 1:1. Thoughts/Advice on this? 

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Problem 2:  I am in a ‘good’ trade (using the same diagram above I would enter around the green arrows)  I take the 1:1 hoping that I can make (3 point before losing 3).  However be I will often close the trade too early maybe for 1 or 2 points.  I am aware it is for many reasons.

• Not wanting to lose my gains
• Thinking it may be a:
  • false breakout
  • it is hitting a previous level of resistance ( i.e. minor level)
  • It is a hammer candle or small dojis.
• There are times for certain that my stop is too close- ( I am working on it)

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And then this Happens!  (hindsight is 20-20). I spend the rest of the day chasing.

1: Is the first trade.  I am kicking myself for being too weak to hold the trade longer as is would have meant a difference between 2 points and 8 points. I closed my position at this point (red arrow) with two dojis at a previous level of resistance it seems appropriate.  With a couple points profit, I am expecting possibly a continuation to the down side.

I see the big inverted hammer and wait to see if the pullback would be at the 50% level.

2: I take the risk for the 50% pullback, go long, and get close to a breakeven trade, as I see a possible head and shoulders bear pattern forming and get out.

Again kicking myself for not holding the trade long enough as the inverted hammer at point two reverses and the up trend continues, I wait until to see if the there will be either a double top or a break through.

3: Seeing the strong break above the golden line, I bought (probably too early) seeing the long wick on the bull candle and the inverted hammer ( I am thinking false break out and possible tweezer top. Along with the hammer following which is lower than the previous two bars, I close the position for a loss.

Yet the trend holds!

4:  I take the breakout, but the next candle is a yet another strong sell off, I am thinking after the last trade, I may be too late in the trend and again sell for a loss.

5:  At this point I am very hesitant. I still take the breakout, but am wary of any major pull back and large wicks, as I am expecting profit taking or a flat trading range to occur. There have been 3 pushes up a couple of larger bear candles.  And despite the bull trend of 25 points, I am at a loss.

6: By the time we have 7 bull candles I am either too hesitant to buy or again bailing too early, The candles are weaker and are overlapping, but it was 10 points of a strong bull trend lost.  (Totally a weak bull at this point) By the final break out, I may have taken it and used it to break even or finish to the plus.

7:  Finally seeing the weakness and possible trend reversal I have been expecting for past 10 bars!  Wait for a possible good sell entry point (large inverted hammer followed by a strong bear bar and what appears to be a lower low and lower highs. However a reversal does not occur, and more than likely I have a couple of trades that breakeven in total.

At the end of the day, it has been a flagellation session, filled with doubt with maybe 3 points profit. Only with the cold comfort of hindsight that it could have been 40 point day!  Please don’t get me wrong, I am not wanting to “swing for the fences” and expect a home run every time or to make thousands of dollar a day.  It is not reasonable to assume that I would have held for the full 40 points.  I am happy with modest gains. But this is what happens time after time for me.   How have others overcome this challenge emotionally and how have others learned to differentiate between minor point of resistance vs major and hold their trades with confidence?