Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market formed a Crude oil big bull spike this week following the Middle East escalation. Bulls want a measured move to the $100 round number based on the height of the prior trading range. Bears want the $100 round number or the 2022 high area to act as resistance.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick was a big bull bar closing near its high with a long tail below.
- The last time a comparable candlestick formed was in 2022 following the start of the Ukraine–Russia conflict.
- The market opened higher around the June 23 high on Monday, followed by a pullback, and then resumed the strong spike up for the rest of the week following the Middle East escalation.
- Bulls want a measured move to the $100 round number based on the height of the prior trading range (April 2025 low to June 2025 high). That level is also near the 2022 high and could act as a magnet.
- If there is a pullback, bulls hope to get at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the current leg’s extreme high (now March 6).
- Bears see the current move as a buy vacuum test of the 2022 high.
- They see the move as a parabolic buy climax and want a bear reversal bar closing near its low.
- Bears want the $100 round number or the 2022 high area to act as resistance.
- If the market trades higher, they want a failed breakout above the 2022 high.
- Bears must create strong bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
- Crude oil is forming a buy vacuum test of the 2022 high following the exogenous shock from the Middle East escalation.
- This week’s candlestick is a huge breakout bar. Because it is so large, it is a gift for bulls but also a buy climax.
- The market is Always In Long.
- The 2022 high around $100 is a magnet, and the market could still trade higher toward this area.
- The move is in an extreme buy climax, which is unsustainable and increases the risk of a deep pullback, even if the market trades higher first.
- This week’s candlestick closed near its high, and the market could gap up next week.
- If the market gaps up, traders will watch whether the gap remains open; if it does, it is a sign of bullish strength. Or will bears close it early as a sign of fading momentum?
- Traders will watch whether bulls can create a follow-through bull bar next week, or whether the market reverses and closes with a long tail above or a bear body instead.
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
The Daily crude oil chart
- The market opened higher on Monday, followed by a pullback, but did not close the gap. Crude oil then resumed the strong rally for the rest of the week.
- Crude oil formed a strong spike up this week in reaction to the Middle East escalation.
- Bulls want a measured move to $100 based on the height of the prior trading range (April 2025 low to June 2025 high).
- They want a retest of the 2022 high formed following the start of the Ukraine–Russia conflict, which could act as a magnet.
- If the market forms a pullback, they hope to get at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the current leg’s extreme high (now March 6).
- Bears see the move as a parabolic buy climax and a buy vacuum test of the 2022 high.
- They want the $100 round number or the 2022 high area to act as resistance.
- If the market trades higher, they want a failed breakout above the 2022 high.
- Bears need to create strong bear bars closing near their lows to show they are back in control.
- The market is forming a buy vacuum toward the 2022 high.
- The move is in a parabolic buy climax, which is unsustainable and increases the risk of a deep pullback, even if the market trades higher first.
- The market is Always In Long, and crude oil could still trade higher next week.
- Traders will watch whether bulls can generate further follow-through buying to retest the 2022 high — and whether the market breaks out above it or reverses with profit-taking instead.
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
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