Market Overview: Bitcoin
As November comes to a close, Bitcoin has delivered an extraordinary month, with Bitcoin breaking out of a six-month trading range. This month, Bitcoin surged approximately 40% from October’s close, nearing the $100,000.
For traders, $100,000 is not merely a psychological level but a key reference point for taking profits, hedging, or structuring reversal trades on lower timeframes. While this milestone once seemed inevitable (2021) and later impossible (2022), November 2024 has reignited optimism, confirming the resilience and potential of Bitcoin’s long-term bull cycle.
Bitcoin
The Monthly chart of Bitcoin
The monthly chart displays a powerful bull breakout from a tight trading range. November’s bar has decisively breached prior price levels, confirming a second—and arguably third—leg up from Bitcoin’s 2022 low. Historically, multi-leg moves often lead to some sideways price action.
The psychological resistance at $100,000 remains a pivotal factor. Since Bitcoin’s $20,000 peak in 2017, this level has been discussed, which incites profit taking. Such profit-taking may introduce selling pressure, which may trigger a retracement toward the breakout point around $75,000. Nevertheless, traders should remain cautious of expectations; Bitcoin holders might avoid selling, keeping the upward momentum intact.
From a technical perspective, a measured move target based on the 2021 high and 2022 low suggests a bullish projection near $120,000. If the price overcomes resistance at $100,000, it could approach this level. A failure to continuing rising, might conduce the price towards $65,000 area of agreement. Regarding the bull-term expectation, traders will monitor the last major higher low near $50,000. Unless this level is breached, the monthly chart remains bullish.
It’s important to note that while Bitcoin has previously displayed over extended climatic bull trends, the presence of institutional players introduces reduced volatility, signaling a more controlled ascent or retracement than in prior cycles.
The Weekly chart of Bitcoin
Last week’s report, anticipated selling above the previous week’s close or high, with a likelihood of the weekly candlestick closing below these levels. This is what happened at the time of the writing.
The weekly chart illustrates a strong bull breakout from a six-month trading range between $50,000 and $70,000. The decisive move above the March 14 all-time high marked a market cycle shift, initiating a bullish trend that surged toward the $100,000 level.
Currently, Bitcoin faces resistance at this key level, as it aligns with a measured move target, psychological significance, and a doubling of gains for entries around $50,000. This convergence makes $100,000 a focal point for profit-taking and structuring trades with clear statistical metrics.
This week’s bar is an inside bar, forming a High 1 buy setup. However, the preceding bull breakout shows waning momentum, suggesting possible sideways-to-down movement. A strong close above $100,000 would indicate weak resistance, paving the way for further upside. Conversely, a pullback below the prior week’s low or a 33-50% retracement may entice new buyers.
The Daily chart of Bitcoin
The daily chart reflects a bull trend, transitioning into sideways action this week. Before this consolidation, Bitcoin was in a tight bull channel, a bull breakout seen on higher timeframes.
While the $100,000 resistance has attracted bears, they need a bear breakout to confirm a potential reversal, unless they are selling with limit orders, with a behavior explained in more detail within the prior report.
The first bear breakout after a bull trend often is just a transition into a trading range, with bears selling near highs after this bear breakout. This is what leads to a lower high major trend reversal, a setup that bears are willing to see unfolding.
The current technical stop-loss for bulls lies near $68,000, the start of the tight bull channel, which is why profit-taking around $100,000 is sound risk management, by reducing position size, they can maintain the technical stop loss. Bulls may view a retracement to the bull climax low as a minor correction, preserving the overall trend.
Only a decisive break below this week’s low or the bull climax low can invalidate the bullish structure.
Bonus: Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin
Weekly chart
This week, we will check the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2), as requested in the comments section. Acting as an index-like metric, TOTAL2 gauges the sentiment and performance of the altcoin market.
The TOTAL2 weekly chart activated a bull signal last week, closing above a major higher high. While the index has yet to retest its all-time high, altcoin bulls aim for this milestone. Unlike Bitcoin, which has already surpassed its previous highs, TOTAL2’s lagging behavior indicates strength in Bitcoin relative to altcoins, which may give a good opportunity to buy bitcoin against the altcoins that are lagging against the TOTAL2 index.
Bull momentum trading works in the crypto market, as occurs with stocks. Traders often adopt strategies of buying breakouts above prior major highs and holding positions until a major higher low is down crossed (or after prolonged trading ranges emerge). This is true specially if the altcoins they are buying behave better than TOTAL2, since these coins are the ones that eventually lead this market. Of course, this only works if the general market is going up.
Thank you for taking the time to read this analysis. Your engagement, insights, and feedback inspire us to provide richer content every week. Please share your thoughts in the comments—whether it’s about Bitcoin’s price action, altcoin strategies, or market dynamics. If you find this report valuable, don’t hesitate to share it with others in your network. Wishing you a wonderful week ahead!
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