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Emini Forming Tight Trading Range

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Trading Update: Wednesday May 21, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a small inside bar following Monday’s outside up bar. Price came within 15 points of the 6,000 round number on Monday, and is now getting a pullback.
  • The odds are the market will have to go beyond the 6,000-round number, due to it being such an important price level.
  • The daily chart continues to be far away from the moving average in a tight bull channel, increasing the odds that the market will have to get to the moving average.
  • The current price level can reach the moving average in one of two ways. First is by going straight down to the moving average. Second, going sideways and dragging the moving average up to the current price.
  • At the moment, the daily chart is forming a tight trading range over the past couple of bars. The Bears may need to do more than create a tight trading range. At a minimum, they need to start collecting Bear Bars, closing on their lows.
  • Overall, the Emini will probably go sideways and reach the moving average over the next few weeks.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The U.S. session opened with the gap below yesterday’s low and found buyers.
  • It rallied up to the moving average for the first seven bars of the day.
  • The gap down and the rally having overlapped, especially with the big tail on seven at the moving average, favored a pullback and a test back to the day’s open.
  • At bar 13, the bears have two legs down, and they’re hoping that 14 is forming a higher low, major trend reversal to a second leg above the bar 7 high.
  • More likely, the rally above 14 will disappoint, leading to a trading range.
  • With the first seven bars of the day being bullish, that increases the odds that today will probably not form a bear trend day.
  • However, if the Bears get a strong breakout with follow-through below the bar 1 low, that will change the probability.
  • At the moment, it looks like today will have a lot of trading range price action.
  • If the market falls below the one low, buyers are probably below.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Trading Range Then Failed Bear Breakout

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart HL Double Bottom Then Wedge Top

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD on the daily chart broke below the moving average over the past several days.
  • However, it found buyers and is now trying to get a rally above the moving average in a test of the April high.
  • The bulls have controlled the market for most of the year; therefore, the odds favor a trading range more than a bear trend.
  • The early May sell-off below the moving average was the first time the market had more than three bars below the moving average in almost three months. This is a sign of intense buying pressure, increasing the odds that the breakout below the moving average would fail.
  • The Bulls are hopeful that today will form a bull bar closing on its high, increasing the odds of a potential successful bull breakout of the bear flag (May 12th to May 16th). This would increase the odds of a rally to the April high.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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