Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini broke resistance with a decisive push in step with this week’s FOMC rate cut. Another factor was a softer US dollar, retreating against other world currencies such as the yen and the euro. The rate cut was not unanimous amongst Fed members, as well Fed chief Powell hinted at pausing future rate cuts. Thus creating uncertainty which bodes well for Gold in the short term.
It is worth mentioning that Silver hit an all time high this week.
The Weekly Gold chart
- Of the past 6 weekly bars, 4 are bull bars and 2 are weak bear dojis.
- Bulls were able to close a body above the previous highest body which occurred the week of October 24.
- The weekly chart is in a bull channel. Simultaneously, this can be considered a type of bear flag as well.
- The week of November 7th printed an inside bar. Inside bars often signal a breakout. This bar turned out to be the first bar in the bull leg.
- The bulls are hoping for 3rd leg that will match or exceed the previous 2 legs.
- The bears want a double top 2nd entry short. Bears want to protect the ATH upper tail zone where they initially revealed themselves.
- The market has been displaying range behavior. Dojis are a signature of range behavior. Price may well be a bull leg in a trading range.
- Gold has been ranging for the past 10 weeks. Only one of those weekly bars closing strong near it’s extreme. There are significant tails on every other bar.
- Measuring significant legs is a common way to locate measure move targets. A MM to the upside can be based on the bear leg down. This puts the bull target at in the 4900 area.
This number is consistent with many market analysts:
~ Goldman Sachs is the primary analyst group predicting gold will hit $4,900 per ounce, specifically by the end of 2026.
~ J.P. Morgan Private Bank: Predicts prices could reach $5,200-$5,300.
~ Deutsche Bank: Forecasts $4,950.
~ UBS: Sees gold hitting $5,000 in 2026 or 2027.
~ Bank of America: Targets $5,000 in 2026 due to U.S. debt and policy.
The Daily Gold chart
- Last week I wrote that if bulls could close a bar above resistance of 4300 then price would want to continue upward. I also commented that the next level of resistance was the ATH at 4400. On Thursday, bulls were able to break resistance with by closing a strong bull bar on its high at 4309. Friday’s price rallied up to near 4400 before being rejected and leaving a large upper tail. Price closed at 4329, staying well above the previous bar, giving bullish follow through.
- Bulls bought up the moving average tap early in the week.
- 4 of the 5 daily bars are bullish. The bears were only able to print a weak doji bar on Monday.
- Significant tails beneath all the daily candles this week. This shows the presence of buyers below.
- The daily chart is breaking out of a cup and handle pattern.
- The bulls want a 3rd leg up.
- The bears want to trap the bulls over resistance.
- Inside and outside bars are often breakout bars. After Monday’s weak bear doji bar, Tuesday’s bar was outside up which began the current breakout.
- Tuesdays outside bar, a couple tests of the moving average, FOMC week, and a wedge & double bottom became the perfect storm in driving prices through resistance.
- Price will often return to apex of triangles, so it is possible that price will pullback to that area before continuing up.
- Many traders prefer not to buy the initial breakout, rather they will buy the 2nd entry long after price returns to retest the triangle apex.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
