Market Overview: Bitcoin
- This week, Bitcoin reached the $100,000 level.
- The bounce from Q1 lows gained strength.
- All-time highs are close. A test at some point seems inevitable.
- Still, the current tone shifts.
- From bullish optimism to caution and patience.
Bitcoin
The Weekly chart of Bitcoin
2024 Structure Review
- Bitcoin traded between $50,000 and $75,000 for most of the year
- In late Q3, price broke through $74,000
- Rally extended to $100,000, peaking at $108,000
- A three-month double top formed
- The neckline at $90,000 broke and retested $75,000
$75,000 became a critical level:
- It was the breakout point of the 2024 range
- It matched the IBIT ETF breakaway gap
- Buyers stepped in strongly
- No signs of panic selling appeared
- After the early 2025 lows, a High 3 setup formed
- We identified it as the first valid buy setup since the correction
- The trigger led to ok follow-through, which was also validated within our report
- Bulls hit their 2:1 target this week
Keep in mind:
- The High 3 happened inside a bear channel
- That reduced the probability of success
- But the reward-to-risk was favorable
- Many traders took the trade on that basis
Trend and Supports
- Trend traders may still wait for a close above all-time highs
- But they also need a tight trading range to form
- Without one, stops are wide and risk is high
- A tight range would offer a better entry
Below current prices:
- 26-week EMA may offer dynamic support
- There’s a 4-bar bull micro channel
- Buyers are likely below this week’s low
Bear Positioning
- Bears do not have a clean short entry
- They may wait for a Low 2 or Low 3, or ii, ioi setups
Takeways
- April’s gains followed the Q1 rebalancing play we highlighted
- High 3 buyers took profits, they’re not fueling the rally now
- No clear presence from bulls or bears at this moment
- Ask yourself:
- If no one’s committed, what’s likely to happen next?
- A sideways or pullback seems likely
- But no strong case for either side exists
- We should not care about what happen next, but what do we do next:
- Buy a Breakout Mode Pattern
- Buy a H1, H2, H3
- Buy at hypothetical range’s low, below $75K
- Selling Bitcoin long-term charts is not recommendable, better only look to sell on weekly or monthly if it is profit taking
- If no one’s committed, what’s likely to happen next?
The Daily chart of Bitcoin
Context and Structure
- Price was in a broad bear channel from all-time highs
- After each bear breakout, the market moved sideways or higher
- That behavior made bears look weak
At $75,000:
- Price tested the breakout point level from the weekly chart
- Filled a Breakaway gap on IBIT zone, created during a major bull breakout in 2024
- Also tested the 365-day EMA
- Institutional support by rebalancing fund demand
Then:
- Bull breakout above the 30-day EMA
- Next, breakout above the neckline of a double bottom around $90,000
- Target of $100,000 was reached this week
- Price even overshot the target
- We expected a second leg up
- Instead, we got a strong continuation breakout
That should raise a flag:
- When a breakout follows a breakout, it often leads to exhaustion
- This smells like FOMO rather than sustainable
Why?
- Weekly bulls took profits, that’s selling
- Who’s buying? Likely emotional, retail traders chasing the move
Still, don’t short blindly:
- Betting against strong bull moves in Bitcoin has historically failed
- That doesn’t mean you buy either
- Risk is challenging to manage with tight stops
- Professionals want structure
- This isn’t it
What are professionals Doing?
- Ask this: Did they buy this breakout?
- Unlikely
So what can they do now?
- Wait for the next Breakout Mode pattern to develop
- Wait for price to pullback to the next round 5k number
- Take advantage of premium pricing through options
A practical idea: Options short put spread (long)
- Sell a put spread at $100K
- Take profits if it hits $105K
- Repeat with $95K, $90K, $85K
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all the weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
