Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 7 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.
Summary
In the last week of October 2025, the market sharply reversed down from all-time highs and has since traded sideways. Bearish positions have been more favorable than bullish ones. However, the current breakout mode pattern signals a potential inflection point, setting the stage for the next significant market swing.
Transcript
Welcome, traders, to this week’s video analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly and daily charts. My name is Josep Capo, Price Action Trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course. Let’s dive into the charts and unpack what’s happening, starting with the weekly timeframe and then zooming into the daily chart for finer details.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin remains entrenched in a well-defined bull channel. This channel is framed by a bull trendline at the top, which has guided the price higher over time, and the three hundred sixty-five-day moving average at the bottom, which acted as the channel support.
Over the past week, we observed an attempt to break down from a thirteen-week trading range. However, this week’s price action is reversing upward, signaling a failure of that bearish breakdown. This aligns with my commentary from last week, where I noted that a significant downward move was unlikely, and instead, a sideways consolidation seemed more probable. That held true, and here’s why.
Last week’s bar featured a large lower tail, indicating strong buying pressure at lower levels. The week prior produced a poor sell signal bar below the range, further weakening the bearish case. Additionally, robust support levels lie below, notably the psychologically significant one hundred thousand dollar round number and the three hundred sixty-five-day moving average.
This week, at the time of this analysis, we’re seeing a bull inside bar forming. This bar suggests that the bearish momentum from the attempted breakdown has dissipated, significantly reducing the odds of a sustained bearish move in the near term.
Looking ahead, the one hundred thousand dollar level and the three hundred sixty-five-day moving average remain critical supports that are candidates to be tested within the next one to two weeks. However, given the vanishing bear momentum, I believe market participants are anticipating a reversal upward from these supports rather than a bearish breakout. To illustrate, had this week closed as a bear bar below the prior week’s low, I’d be more concerned as a bull. Instead, the current price action supports a neutral to bullish bias within the lower half of the trading range.
The most significant magnet on the weekly chart is not the one hundred thousand dollar level but rather the one hundred fifteen thousand dollar level, which marks the midpoint of the fourteen-week trading range. This level also aligns closely with the September close, which was the close of the third quarter this year, reinforcing its importance as a key area of interest. Traders often gravitate toward such levels as they represent equilibrium points within ranges, where both bulls and bears reassess their positions.
Another level to watch is the one hundred twenty five thousand dollar level, which now acts as resistance. This level saw a bull breakout above the August high, followed by buying at the close of the highest October weekly bar. However, this breakout may have trapped overly optimistic bulls, increasing the likelihood of continued range-bound price action rather than a violent bull breakout. Next week marks the close of the monthly bar, which is currently forming as an outside down doji.
In summary, I expect Bitcoin to oscillate around the one hundred fifteen thousand dollar level over the coming weeks, with a potential dip to the one hundred five thousand or one hundred thousand dollar area within one to three weeks. This range-bound behavior reflects the market’s current indecision, but the fading bear momentum tilts the bias slightly bullish.
Now, let’s zoom into the daily chart for a more granular perspective. The market has formed a triangle pattern, a classic breakout mode structure where bulls and bears each have a fifty percent chance of a successful breakout. In last week’s video, I highlighted that Bitcoin was in an “always in short” market condition, with the one hundred ten thousand dollar level and the thirty-day exponential moving average as ideal areas to structure sell trades. The market validated this view, reversing sharply downward from the thirty-day exponential moving average on Tuesday.
However, the price then reversed upward, forming the current triangle pattern. On the upside, two key magnets are in play: the one hundred fifteen thousand dollar level, which we discussed as a higher-timeframe magnet, and the area around the October thirteenth close, where bulls who bought the prior bull breakout and follow through may now be trapped. These levels will likely influence price action in the coming days.
Focusing on the triangle, this week’s high serves as the bull signal for an upside breakout, while this week’s low is the bear signal for a downside breakout. Both scenarios face challenges due to nearby support and resistance levels, which complicates the breakout potential. The most compelling setup, in my view, is a reversal upward from a failed bear breakout of this triangle. This is because another leg down would mark a third bear leg since the reversal from all time high. Currently, we’re in the lower half of a trading range, making it an attractive area to structure long trades.
For bulls, the outlook is nuanced. A strong bull breakout with solid follow-through could signal the start of a new bull leg, potentially followed by another leg sideways to up. However, if the breakout is weak, I’d consider two strategies: fading trapped bulls around the one hundred fifteen thousand dollar level or waiting for a reversal down to swing trade toward the October low.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price action suggests a market in consolidation, with the one hundred ten thousand dollar level as a key pivot point. Supports at one hundred five thousand dollar and the three hundred sixty-five-day moving average provide a strong foundation for potential reversals. On the daily chart, the triangle pattern keeps both bulls and bears on edge, but the fading bear momentum tilts the odds toward a bullish resolution.
Before we conclude, I’d like to invite you to explore an exciting initiative we’ve launched: daily end of day Bitcoin reports. This week, we published three end-of-day reports detailing intraday price movements, offering traders insights into Bitcoin’s day trading behavior. We’re eager to hear your feedback and gauge your interest in this project. If you’re looking for more Bitcoin-related price action material, please visit the Brooks Trading Course blog, check out our posts, and leave your comments. Your input will help shape the future of this initiative.
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