Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market formed a broad Crude oil contracting triangle with converging trend lines. Bulls want a retest of the March 9 high, followed by a breakout above. Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and breaking far below the April 17 low to demonstrate control.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick was a bear bar closing below the middle of its range, with long tails.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could generate follow-through buying to break above the March 9 high, or whether the market would trade lower to retest the bottom of the range near the April 17 low.
- The market traded lower but formed a higher low relative to the April 17 low, closing around the middle of the trading range.
- Bulls want a retest of the March 9 high, followed by a breakout above.
- They want any pullback to stall above the April 17 low, forming a wedge bull flag (March 23, April 17, and May 6).
- Bulls need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a strong breakout above the trading range.
- Bears see the recent move (April 30) as a retest of the prior high and want the top of the trading range to act as resistance.
- They want a reversal from a wedge top (March 9, April 7, and April 30).
- Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and breaking far below the April 17 low to demonstrate control.
- Crude oil is forming a broad contracting triangle, with the market contained within two converging trendlines.
- The market is currently trading around the middle of the range, an area of balance that often acts as a magnet.
- The market remains in a trading range with overlapping price action. Traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) — buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third — until there is a strong breakout with follow-through.
- Traders will watch whether bears can generate follow-through selling to retest the bottom of the range near the April 17 low.
- Or will the market trade higher to test the bear trend line instead?
- External factors, such as developments in the Middle East, could accelerate or reverse the current move.
The Daily crude oil chart
- Wednesday traded lower but closed with a long lower tail. There was no follow-through selling as the week closed around the middle of the trading range.
- Previously, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate follow-through selling to retest the bottom of the range near the April 17 low, or whether the market would continue to stall there, forming a large double bottom bull flag instead.
- Bulls want a retest of the March 9 high, followed by a breakout above.
- They want any pullback to stall above the April 17 low, forming a large wedge bull flag (March 23, April 17, and May 6).
- Bulls need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a breakout above the trading range high.
- Bears see the recent move (April 30) as a retest of the prior high and want the top of the trading range to act as resistance.
- They want a reversal from a wedge top (March 9, April 7, and April 30).
- Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and breaking far below the April 17 low to demonstrate control.
- Crude oil is forming a broad contracting triangle with lower highs and higher lows.
- The market remains in a trading range with overlapping price action. Traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) — buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third — until there is a strong breakout with follow-through.
- The market is currently trading around the middle of the range, which is an area of balance and often acts as a magnet.
- Traders will watch whether bears can generate follow-through selling to retest the bottom of the range near the April 17 low.
- Or will the market trade higher to retest the bear trend line instead?
- External factors, such as developments in the Middle East, could accelerate or reverse the current move.
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