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Crude Oil Bull Entry Bar

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Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The market formed a Crude Oil bull entry bar on the weekly chart. They need to create a strong follow-through bull bar to increase the odds of the bull leg trading higher. The bears want the market to form a lower high or a double top bear flag with the April 2 high.

Crude oil futures

The Weekly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Weekly - Bull Entry Bar, Bulls Need FT Buying, Crude Oil Bull Entry Bar
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bull bar closing near its high with a prominent tail below.
  • Last week, we said the market could trade slightly higher. Traders would see if the bulls could create a strong entry bar which would increase the odds of a retest near the 20-week EMA, or if the market would stall and close with a long tail or a bear body instead.
  • The bulls created a bull entry bar closing above the prior week’s high.
  • They see the recent move (April 9) as a large 2-legged sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
  • They see the selloff as climactic and want the bull leg to begin.
  • They hope to get a pullback lasting a few weeks and a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-week EMA).
  • They need to create a strong follow-through bull bar to increase the odds of the bull leg trading higher.
  • They hope that the bottom of the trading range will act as support.
  • The bears got a large 2-legged bear leg testing the bottom of the trading range (May 4, 2023).
  • They see the current move as a pullback.
  • They want the market to form a lower high or a double top bear flag with the April 2 high.
  • They want the 20-week EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance.
  • They hope to get a retest of the April 9 low after the pullback.
  • While the recent move down was strong, it was also slightly climactic.
  • Crude oil is currently trading around the lower third of the trading range which is the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The market remains in a large trading range.
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
  • That means selling in the upper third and buying in the lower third of the trading range.
  • For now, the market could still be in the sideways to up pullback phase.
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar. That would increase the odds of a retest near the 20-week EMA.
  • Or will the move lack follow-through buying and the candlestick close with a long tail above or a bear body instead?

The Daily crude oil chart

Crude Oil Daily - Bulls Want Bull Leg; Bears Want Retest Low
  • The market traded sideways early in the week. Wednesday traded lower but reversed into an outside bull bar. Thursday was a follow-through bull bar testing the 20-day EMA.
  • Last week, we said the market could still be in the sideways to up pullback phase. Traders would see if the bulls could create sustained follow-through buying trading far above the 20-day EMA, or if the pullback would lack sustained follow-through buying.
  • The bulls see the move to the April 9 low as a large 2-legged bear leg and a sell vacuum within the trading range.
  • They want a reversal from a climactic selloff and the bull leg to begin.
  • At the least, they want a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback lasting a couple of weeks, testing near the middle of the trading range.
  • They need to create strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs trading far above the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
  • The bears got a large 2-legged bear leg and a sell vacuum within the trading range.
  • While the move down was strong, it was also slightly climactic.
  • They see the current move as a two-legged pullback (Apr 10 and Apr 17). They want it to be weak and sideways (overlapping candlesticks, doji(s), bear bars, and long tails above candlesticks).
  • They want the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance.
  • They want a large double top bear flag with the April 2 high.
  • They hope to get at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the recent leg extreme low (Apr 9) after the pullback, even if it only forms a higher low.
  • So far, the market has formed a two-legged sideways to up pullback testing the 20-day EMA.
  • While the recent selloff was strong, it could still be a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
  • The market remains in a large trading range. Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the trading range.
  • That means buying in the lower third and selling in the upper third of the trading range.
  • For now, the market could still be in the sideways to up pullback phase.
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create sustained follow-through buying trading far above the 20-day EMA.
  • Or will the market stall around the 20-day EMA area and form a retest of the April 9 low instead?

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