Trading Update: Wednesday October 29, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The Emini formed another gap up yesterday and closed above the open of the day. While the momentum is up for the bulls, the bars are getting smaller, which increases the odds that today will close below the open.
- The market is near 6,950, and 7,000 is a major round number. This increases the risk of profit-taking and selling near 6,550, which is 50 points away from the 7,000 major round number.
- Because the Daily chart is becoming more and more climactic. There is an increased risk that the market will have to test back down to 6,800 and the October 10th high before reaching 7,000.
- Today is an FOMC day, and therefore, traders must be prepared for some sort of surprise up or down. Given how climactic the daily chart is becoming, the odds are the market’s going to find sellers on the FOMC.
- Traders who are buying on the daily chart are buying momentum, and the momentum is beginning to stall. They are not buying because the market is cheap and therefore considered a value. They know the market’s expensive. And once the market starts to stall, more and more bulls will begin to cover their longs, while bears will start to establish shorts.
- It’s possible that the pullback is brief, lasting a few days, and then the market has to get a second leg up to 7,000. 7,000 is also an important major round number. Because of that, there are likely sellers at the major round numbers.
- Overall, the Bulls have done a great job over the past 4 days. However, with momentum beginning to stall, the odds favor a pullback today, not closing above the open.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a gap up and rallied up to the bar 6 high in the form of a bull microchannel.
- The rally up to bar 6 had a lot of overlap and arguably created a parabolic wedge when bar 7 reversed down.
- Bars 7 and 8 are strong enough for a second leg down, which the Bears got on bar 17.
- Because of the sell-off into yesterday’s close, yesterday’s bar 72, all the way down to yesterday’s bar 81, the odds are against the market finding buyers above yesterday’s 72. This meant that when the market gapped up above yesterday’s high (bar 72), the odds favored sellers above that level.
- It’s possible that the market goes sideways until the FOMC announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern Time.
- Traders should be flat going into the report at least 30 minutes before the announcement.
- Traders should also not trade for the first 10 minutes after the announcement.
- If a trader is going to trade following the FOMC announcement, they must trade small. In general, trade at least 20% of your normal position size.
- The FOMC announcement can be considered a new start of the session. Because of this, lower-probability events have higher probability than they usually would, and higher-probability events have slightly lower probability than they normally would.
- Most traders should consider not trading the FOMC and just waiting for the following day, treating today like a half day.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is forming a tight trading range, which is in breakout mode. This tight trading range has lasted for almost ten bars.
- The market is deciding if the bears are going to get trend resumption and a test down to the July 30th low, or if the bulls are going to get the reversal up.
- At the moment, the sell-off to the July 30th close was strong, and therefore, the odds are it will get retested.
- Even if the bulls get the upside breakout, and we test the October 17th high, the reality is, there’s probably sellers above its high.
- At the moment, the odds favor a sell-off and test of the July 30th close.
- The EURUSD has been in a trading range for the past several months. Trading ranges are notorious for forgiving traders. This means bears who sold the close of July 30th and didn’t panic and sell more at a new all-time high. The reality is that they are probably going to make money.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
