Trading Update: Friday May 15, 2026
E-mini end of day video review
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- Yesterday formed a large climactic breakout above the 7,500 round number, a strong buy climax late in the rally with extreme buying, which increased the odds that the market would pull back below yesterday’s close and back below 7,500.
- The overnight session sold off, and today is gapping down below yesterday’s close, but the odds are against the market going straight down, and the bears are more likely to get a pullback lasting a couple of legs with a probable test of the May 12 low at the bottom of the most recent buy climax.
- The market has been away from the moving average since April 7, so the odds favor a test of the moving average over the next several weeks, and the market may also continue to go sideways around this price level and let the moving average drift up to the current price.
- Because today is gapping down, today is likely to form a disappointing buy signal bar for the bulls that does not close on its low, but it is reasonable to assume today may close above its midpoint and form a weak high-1 buy signal bar, which would increase the risk of sellers above today’s high and a second leg down for the bears.
- Overall, the market is likely to test the moving average, so the bulls will be less interested in buying until price reaches the moving average because they know the market is climactic and extreme and that a test of the moving average is inevitable, which traders should expect over the next several days and possibly a couple of weeks.
- While the bears are hoping for a strong reversal down, the realistic best case is sideways trading, and even if they get a strong sell-off below the moving average, there will likely be buyers not far below because this tight channel up is a breakout on a higher time frame, which reduces the probability of the bears getting a strong reversal down.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped down, forming a large downside breakout, but because the higher time frame is bullish and the gap down was large, the probability of the bears getting a strong second leg or a bear trend day on the RTH chart is reduced.
- The market sold off for the first three bars, but because the gap down was large, it was likely to get an opening reversal and a test of the moving average, and the market has since gone sideways for the first 40 bars and is forming a triangle in breakout mode.
- The bears are hoping to break strongly to the downside for trend resumption and a second leg after the gap down, while the bulls want a reversal up and a break above the bar 11 high of the day, and the market is likely to break out of this 18-bar range before the end of the day.
- Bar 41 is a strong enough bear bar that the bears have a reasonable shot at a second leg down, and because the gap down was strong, it is reasonable to assume the market may have to test back down to the bar 3 close at the bottom of the opening breakout.
- However, with the market forming a trading range for the first 40 bars, today is likely to have a lot of trading range price action, so traders should assume the downside is likely to be limited.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important, and the weekly chart is forming a bull bar above the open near 4,300, which the bears would need to break for a strong late-day reversal — about 50 points away from the current price and probably out of reach in time.
- Overall, with this much sideways trading in the first 40 bars, the market is likely to continue to go sideways for the rest of the day, but the market is in breakout mode, so traders must be ready for a breakout up or down and decide whether it is likely to fail or succeed.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
