Trading Update: Monday February 24, 2025
Emini end of day video review
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S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The daily chart formed a strong downside breakout bar last Friday, closing on its low and far below the moving average. Last Friday’s breakout is a surprise and is strong enough that the odds favor a 2nd leg down.
- The bulls are hopeful that today will form a bull reversal bar closing on its high, trapping the bears into a bad short. Even if the bulls manage to form a bull reversal bar, the odds will still favor sellers above and the bears getting a 2nd leg down.
- Last Friday’s breakout was climactic, increasing the odds that the market will have to pull back for a bar or two before the bears can get their 2nd leg down.
- The bears are hopeful that today will form a 2nd strong bear breakout bar closing on its low. This would increase the odds of lower prices and a test below the January low.
- Overall, because last Friday’s bar closed mostly below the moving average on the daily chart, the odds favor a 2nd leg down. This means the best the bulls will probably get is a minor reversal. The Bulls need a very strong reversal of last Friday’s bear breakout bar if they are going to prevent the Bears from getting a 2nd leg down.The daily chart formed a strong downside breakout bar last Friday, closing on its low and far below the moving average. Last Friday’s breakout is strong enough that the odds favor a 2nd leg down.
- The bulls are hopeful that today will form a bull reversal bar closing on its high, trapping the bears into a bad short. Even if the bulls manage to form a bull reversal bar, the odds will still favor sellers above and the bears getting a 2nd leg down.
- Last Friday’s breakout was climactic, increasing the odds that the market will have to pull back for a bar or two before the bears can get their 2nd leg down.
- The bears are hopeful that today will form a 2nd strong bear breakout bar closing on its low. This would increase the odds of lower prices and a test below the January low.
- Overall, because last Friday’s bar closed mostly below the moving average on the daily chart, the odds favor a 2nd leg down. This means the best the bulls will probably get is a minor reversal. The Bulls need a very strong reversal of last Friday’s bear breakout bar if they are going to prevent the Bears from getting a 2nd leg down.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market has rallied sideways to up for most of the overnight session (15-minute chart).
- The bulls want to undo as much of the selling from last Friday’s selloff as possible. However, the best the bulls will likely get is a trading range. This means that today’s U.S. Session will likely have a lot of trading range price action.
- Because last Friday was so climactic, there is a 75% chance of two hours of sideways trading beginning before the end of the 2nd hour. As mentioned above, there is a 50% chance of follow-through selling, followed by two hours of sideways trading.
- There is only a 20% chance of a trend from the open lasting all day.
- This means that most traders should consider waiting 6-12 bars before placing a trade. Because the odds favor a trading range, traders can wait for the open to form a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom before placing a trade to catch the opening swing.
- Traders should also pay attention to the open of the day as it will likely be an important magnet today as both the bulls and bears decide if today will create follow-through selling after last Friday’s bear breakout bar.
- The most important thing on the open is to be patient. A trade is never overdue, and traders must not force trades if they cannot justify a mathematical reason for placing a trade.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD went above the February 14th high during last night’s session. Because Friday was a bear bar closing near its low, the odds favored sellers above.
- The bears are hopeful that today’s rally will form a strong bear reversal bar, leading to a test of the February 19th low. However, the bears will more likely become disappointed, and today will not close near its low.
- Overall, the odds favor higher prices and a test up to the December 6th major lower high.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
