Curso de Trading do Brooks

Aprenda a operar price action consistentemente

 

More results...

Weekly Crude Oil Bear Leg

By

Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The market formed a weekly Crude Oil bear leg testing the middle of the trading range. The bears want a strong bear leg to retest the bottom of the trading range. The bulls want a small sideways to up leg to retest the recent leg extreme high (Jan 15), even if it forms a lower high.

Crude oil futures

The Weekly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Weekly - Bears Want Strong Bear Leg, Weekly Crude Oil Bear Leg
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with a small tail below.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling trading below the 20-week EMA, or if the market would stall around the 20-week EMA followed by a retest of the January 15 high in the next few weeks instead.
  • The market opened and traded higher early in the week but lacked follow-through buying. Crude oil reversed to test the 20-week EMA.
  • The bears got another follow-through bear bar testing the 20-week EMA, forming the second leg sideways to down (the first leg being Jan 31).
  • They got a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-week EMA area).
  • They want a strong bear leg to retest the bottom of the trading range.
  • The bulls see the last three weeks as a deep pullback.
  • They hope to get a retest and a breakout above the January 15 high.
  • At the very least, they want a small sideways to up leg to retest the recent leg extreme high (Jan 15), even if it forms a lower high.
  • They want the 20-week EMA to act as support.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is an outside bear bar closing in its lower half, it is a sell signal bar for next week.
  • The market may still trade slightly lower.
  • The market is currently trading around the middle of the large trading range which is an area of balance and a magnet.
  • For now, traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling trading below the 20-week EMA.
  • Or will the market stall around the 20-week EMA followed by a retest of the January 15 high in the next few weeks (even if it forms a lower high) instead?
  • The market remains in a large trading range.
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
  • That means selling in the upper third and buying in the lower third of the trading range.

The Daily crude oil chart

Crude Oil Daily - Bears Got 2nd Leg; Want Test TR Low
  • The market gapped up on Monday and traded higher but had poor follow-through buying. The market than traded sideways to down for the rest of the week.
  • Previously, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create a retest of the January 15 high or if the bears would be able to create a second leg sideways to down, closing far below the 20-day EMA instead.
  • The bears got the second leg sideways to down this week.
  • They got a reversal testing the middle of the trading range from a double top bear flag (Jul 5 and Jan 15).
  • They want the bear leg to retest the bottom of the trading range.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a double top bear flag with the February 3 high.
  • They want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
  • Previously, the bulls got a strong bull leg testing the July high area.
  • They see the current move as a deep pullback testing the breakout point (the top of the tight trading range).
  • They want at least a retest of the recent leg extreme high (Jan 15), even if it only forms a lower high.
  • They need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show that they are back in control.
  • So far, the move down is in a tight bear channel which means persistent selling.
  • The bear leg within the trading range is currently underway.
  • The market may still trade slightly lower.
  • Crude Oil is currently trading around the middle of the trading range which is an area of balance and a magnet.
  • For now, traders will see if the bears can continue to create more follow-through selling to retest the trading range low.
  • Or will the market stall around the middle of the trading range followed by a pullback to retest the January 15 high, even if it forms a lower high?

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

>