Trading Update: Monday October 13, 2025
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The E-mini formed a fair breakout bar, closing on its low last Friday. This is a strong enough bar that it’s likely to influence the next several weeks. This increases the odds that the bears will experience a second leg down, even if the market rallies first.
- Last Friday’s bear breakout is a strong enough bar that it may lead to the high of the year. At a minimum, the Bears will expect at least a second leg down, and the market falling below the low of last Friday.
- I’ve been saying for a while that the market was likely to fall below the September 2nd low. Last Friday’s bear breakout bar is a warning that the market will likely test down to the September 2nd major lower high over the next several weeks.
- Because last Friday was a large bear trend bar breaking out far below the moving average, traders will likely agree that the market is entering a trading range on the daily chart, and it’s no longer in a bull trend.
- Even if the Bulls get above last Friday’s high, the odds are there will be sellers above it.
- Overall, last Friday is a strong enough breakout bar that traders will expect some second leg down. And possibly a measured move, depending on the follow-through.
- Because last Friday’s breakout was extreme and climactic, the odds favored a pullback due to bears taking profits and bulls buying for scalp. However, even though last Friday was climactic, it is a bear breakout bar significant enough to likely influence the market over the next several weeks, increasing the odds that it will go lower.
- The bulls will need to make the market go sideways for several bars, which would lower the influence of last Friday’s bear breakout. Without more buying pressure, traders will assume that the odds favor a second leg down and a test of the September 2nd low.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped up, and it’s gone sideways for the first 30 bars of the session.
- The gap up was large, which increased the odds of a trading range and not a bull trend day. This is because last Friday’s bear breakout was strong enough that the odds favored a second leg down.
- While the upside breakout was strong, the odds are against a bull trend day in the market going much above the open of the day. This is because of the reasons I mentioned above. There are likely sellers on a pullback after last Friday’s strong bear breakout. This means the odds of the Bulls getting a strong reversal of the breakout are low without the market at least going sideways.
- Even if the bulls get a bull trend day, it will probably not be all that big compared to the gap up. The gap up on the open is already large enough for traders to conclude that the upside will likely be limited.
- Because of all the trading range price action during the first 20 bars of the open, the odds favor more trading range price action for the rest of the day.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Richard created the SP500 Emini chart – Al travelling
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
