Trading Update: Tuesday December 23, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini daily chart printed a strong bull breakout bar today, closing near its high and above the prior ATH. This increases the probability of continued buying and at least a second leg up.
- Bulls want follow-through at the top of the broader trading range to set up a year-end test of 7000/7100 big round number.
- The Santa Claus rally window (last five trading days of December plus the first two of January) is often cited as a period with better-than-average returns, historically around +1.3% on average but more usually 1% for the S&P.
- Historically, the Santa window tends to have positive seasonality, which can reinforce the ‘probe higher’ bull case even if intraday PA remains range-like.”
- Measured-move traders also have a clear magnet: a Leg 1 = Leg 2 projection using the bull leg from 11/21 → 11/28, anchored off the 12/17 wedge-bottom low, targets roughly ~7100 confluent with the 7100 Big Round Number year end target for some managers.
E-mini 5-minute chart – What happened today
- Strong bull breakout bar double bottom at trading range low with consistent follow through signaled bull pressure, first trading range breakout failed – open followed TR rules with early failed moves.
- Bears failed on the downside and a micro DB / reversal formed from the lower range.
- Bulls achieved a successful second BO and transitioned into spike-and-channel.
- The first EMA test was bought and price shifted into a trending TR near the highs.
What to expect tomorrow
- After the tight trading range close today near the highs today, market is in breakout mode.
- Breakouts, especially after a 20 bar + continued trading range ( endless pullback) can break either way because both sides see a good case:
- Bulls see acceptance above the hourly BO point (~6936) and want continuation.
- Bears see a stretched spike + tight range and want at least a pullback to the mean (EMA) or a test of support.
- This environment produces “false starts” because early breakouts trigger the opposing side’s best entries (profit-taking, fades, and stop entries).
- Given holiday liquidity and year end dynamics selling pressure can produce sudden and deeper pullbacks despite the strong bull spike market saw today.
1. Most likely Bull scenario tomorrow
- Early test yesterday’s high – fail once – pull back to /EMA/ mid trading range – second attempt bull push
- If pullback is shallow, bull signals are clean and holds above yesterday’s breakout point bulls see continuation.
2. Bull continuation: Break and hold above yesterday’s high (clean follow-through)
- Consecutive strong bull closes breaking above yesterday’s high with limited overlap.
- Breakout, brief pause – measured-move style push.
- Bulls will see continuation if bears cannot create consecutive strong bear bars; pullbacks are one-legged/ brief and quickly bought.
3. Pullback/retest: Breakdown from the tight range first to test hourly breakout point ~$6936
- Break below the tight range / opening range with follow-through (at least two strong consecutive bear closes)
- Bear pressure/ rotation down toward hourly BO point
- Inflection point
- If price holds higher low at or above the breakout point bulls see the opportunity try again to break yesterday’s high.
- If breakout point fails with follow-through: increases odds the move becomes a failed breakout and rotates deeper back into the prior range and seeks yesterday’s low and possibly the weekend bull gap.
Today’s S&P E-mini chart price action
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart – Richard travelling.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
