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Emini Failed Low 1: Why a Second Leg Up is Likely

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Trading Update: Wednesday March 19, 2025

Emini end of day video review

Price Action Rose EOD Review

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S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini failed to create a strong bear entry bar below Monday’s weak low 1 signal bar.
  • The bulls formed a 3-bar microchannel up to Monday’s high (March 17th). This and the fact that the daily chart is oversold increases the odds of buyers below and the market testing up to Monday’s high.
  • Targets for the bulls are the moving average and the November 4th low, which is the bottom of a trading range.
  • The bears will try their best to prevent the bulls from getting a strong 2nd leg above the March 17th high. However, the odds favor price above it and reaching the moving average.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed an opening reversal with bar 4 and rallied up to yesterday’s high on bar 9. The rally is strong enough that the odds favor a 2nd leg up.
  • This increases the odds that today will be a bull trend or a trading range day.
  • Today is an FOMC day, meaning today’s report should be flat at least 30 minutes before the report is released at 2:00 PM EST.
  • If one trades the report, it is best to wait at least 10 minutes after the report due to the increased risk of an opening reversal.
  • The FOMC often creates big bars and increases the volatility. This means that traders must reduce their position. Generally, a trader should consider trading 20% of their standard position size.
  • Traders should treat the release of the FOMC report as a new day. This means that anything can happen on the report, no matter how strong the bars leading up to the report appear to be.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trend from Open and Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Parabolic Wedge Top Failed Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is forming overlapping bars, which increases the risk of a pullback and test of the March 6th low, the bottom of the bull channel.
  • The rally up to March 5 was strong and increased the odds of some measured move up, even if the market pulled back to the March 6 low.
  • The bears need to increase the selling pressure and halt the buying. Once they can make the market go sideways for a long enough period, they will have a shot at getting a reversal of the recent upside breakout.
  • Without more selling pressure, the odds favor higher prices.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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