Trading Update: Monday September 29, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini formed a High 1 buy signal bar last Thursday; however, the signal bar is weak, and it is inside of a 3-bar bear micro channel.
- While last Thursday’s a weak buy signal bar for the bulls and increases the odds of sellers above, it’s low in the range and testing support at the moving average.
- It increased the odds that the market would bounce on Friday, which it did.
- Last Monday, September 22nd, on the buy climax bar late in the bull trend. It increased the odds that the market would experience a reversal down, which it did in a test of the moving average.
- There are trapped bulls from last Monday’s high who are likely disappointed by the reversal down. This increases the risk that they will be interested in selling out of their longs on any bounce.
- This means there are probably sellers above last Friday’s high. This increases the risk that today will attempt to close the breakout point above last Friday’s high.
- The daily chart is probably going to form a trading range and go sideways for several days.
- The selling last week was enough to increase the odds of trading range price action. It was not enough to increase the odds of a strong reversal down. Because of this, the market will likely need to build more selling pressure before the bears can start testing lower.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped up on the open and went sideways to up for the first 15 bars.
- The odds favored a test of last Friday’s high sometime within the first few hours of the open. However, because of the gap up, the bears needed to increase the selling pressure, which is what happened for the first 15 bars today.
- The bears managed to get a wedge top on bar 16, and the market reversed down to bar 22.
- The selling down to bar 22 is good for the Bears, but it has a lot of overlapping bars. This increases the odds that the market is in a trading range and may bounce before it reaches last Friday’s high.
- Because of the sideways trading on the first 15 bars, if today is a bear trend day, it’ll likely be a trending trading range day and not a strong bear trend.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
