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Weekly E-mini Follow-through Bear Bar

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Market Overview: S&P 500 E-mini Futures

Weekly E-mini Follow-through Bear Bar following the breakout below the November low. Bears want a larger measured move based on the height of the broader trading range (November 21 low to January 28 high), projecting toward the 6,200 area. If the market trades lower, bulls want the June 23 low area to act as support.

S&P500 E-mini futures

The Weekly S&P 500 E-mini chart

E-mini Weekly - FT Selling, Strong Bear Bar, Weekly E-mini Follow-through Bear Bar
  • This week’s E-mini candlestick was a bear bar closing near its low.
  • Last week, we said traders were watching whether bears could generate strong follow-through selling, which would increase the odds of a larger sustained move lower, or whether the move would lack follow-through, leading to a pullback to retest the 20-week EMA.
  • Bears got follow-through selling this week.
  • Recently, bears achieved a breakout below the 13-week tight trading range, followed by a measured move to around 6,500 based on the height of the range.
  • Next, they want a larger measured move based on the height of the broader trading range (November 21 low to January 28 high), projecting toward the 6,200 area.
  • The current leg down is in a 5-bar bear microchannel, indicating persistent selling.
  • Bears want any pullback to be weak, forming lower highs and extending the microchannel. They expect sellers above the microchannel.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want the 20-week EMA to act as resistance, forming a lower high major trend reversal followed by a larger second leg sideways to down.
  • Bulls see the current move as a deep pullback testing the December 6, 2024 breakout point and the August 1 low, and hope these areas act as support.
  • If the market trades lower, bulls want the June 23 low area to act as support.
  • The problem with the bull case is the lack of strong bull bars in recent weeks, with all pullbacks over the past four weeks forming lower highs, indicating weakness.
  • Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to show they have regained control.
  • The market broke below the November low recently with follow-through selling this week.
  • The move remains in a 5-bar bear microchannel, indicating persistent selling, with likely sellers on the first pullback above it.
  • The market is likely Always In Short.
  • Since this week closed near its low, the market may gap down next week. Small gaps often close early.
  • For now, the market may continue sideways to down.
  • Traders are watching whether bears can generate further follow-through selling toward the next measured move area around 6,200.
  • Or will market trade lower but close with a long tail below or a bull body instead?

The Daily S&P 500 E-mini chart

E-mini Daily - FT Seling, Tight Bear Channel
  • The market gapped up on Monday to retest the breakout point (November low) but there was no follow-through buying. The market formed a breakout pullback short setup, selling off from Thursday onward. On Friday, it gapped down and closed as a bear bar near its low, with the gap remaining open.
  • Last week, we said traders were watching whether bears could generate sustained follow-through selling after the breakout below the November low and the 200-day EMA, or if the market would quickly reverse back into the trading range.
  • Bears generated follow-through selling below the November low this week.
  • Previously, bears broke below the 13-week tight trading range, achieving a measured move target near 6,500 based on the range height.
  • Next, bears want a larger measured move based on the height of the broader trading range (November 21 low to January 28 high), projecting toward the 6,200 area.
  • They hope Friday’s gap down becomes a measuring gap, projecting toward 6,200 (measured from the March 17 high to the midpoint of the gap).
  • Bears are looking for a third spike down, with the first two on March 20 and March 27.
  • Bears want any pullback to form lower highs, with the 20-day EMA acting as resistance.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want a lower high major trend reversal, followed by a second leg sideways to down.
  • Bulls hope the August 1 low, or June 23 low (not shown) will act as support.
  • The problem with bull’s case is the lack of follow-through buying. Pullbacks over the past few weeks have formed lower highs and failed to reach the 20-day EMA, indicating weakness.
  • Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars breaking above the bear trendline to show strength, followed by a weak retest of the current leg low.
  • If the market forms another spike lower, bulls hope to get at least a two-legged sideways to up pullback lasting at least 10 bars (TBTL—Ten Bars, Two Legs) after a third consecutive climax (the first two on March 20 and March 27).
  • The leg down from March 17 high to March 20 low formed consecutive micro gaps with little overlap, indicating strong selling pressure.
  • The move from the March 25 high to the March 27 low showed little overlap, an open gap, and a micro gap—signs of selling urgency.
  • The market is likely Always In Short.
  • The market may still trade lower.
  • Traders will watch whether bears can generate sustained follow-through selling toward the 6,200 measured move area.
  • Or if the market will trade slightly lower but stall and begin forming bull bars, leading to a two-legged sideways to up pullback lasting 10 or more bars following the consecutive sell climaxes.

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