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Big Crude Oil Doji Bar

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Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The weekly chart formed a big Crude oil doji bar. It represents a big one-bar trading range where both bulls and bears were active. Bulls hope to get at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the leg’s extreme high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high. If the market trades higher, bears want it to form a lower high relative to the March 9 high.

Crude oil futures

The Weekly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Weekly - Big Doji Bar, 1-Bar Trading Range
  • This week’s candlestick was a large doji bar with extremely long tails, closing around the middle of its range.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could create a follow-through bull bar, or whether the market would reverse and close with a long tail above or a bear body instead.
  • The market opened higher and spiked up, overshooting the 2022 high, but formed a deep pullback afterward. It then traded sideways to up, closing with a small bull body.
  • Bulls got a measured move to the $100 round number and a test of the 2022 high.
  • The long upper tail indicates rejection of higher prices for now.
  • Bulls hope to get at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the leg’s extreme high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high.
  • Bears see the current move as a buy vacuum test of the 2022 high and want a failed breakout.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want it to form a lower high relative to the March 9 high.
  • Bears need strong bear bars closing near their lows to show they have regained control.
  • Crude oil formed a parabolic buy vacuum overshooting the 2022 high, followed by a deep pullback.
  • This week’s candlestick is a large doji bar with extremely long tails, closing around the middle of its range. It represents a big one-bar trading range where both bulls and bears were active.
  • The middle of the large one-bar trading range can act as an area of balance and a magnet.
  • Traders may Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of that range.
  • For now, traders will watch whether bulls can create a retest of the March 9 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
  • Or whether the market forms a deeper pullback to the 20-day EMA in the weeks ahead.
  • Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.

The Daily crude oil chart

Crude Oil Daily - Parabolic Spike & PB, 2nd Leg Retest High
  • The market opened higher and overshot the 2022 high, followed by a deep pullback breaking below the 8-bar bull microchannel on Tuesday. The market then formed a second leg sideways to up from midweek onward.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could generate further follow-through buying breaking above the 2022 high, or whether the market would reverse with profit-taking instead.
  • Bulls see the move on Tuesday (March 10) as a deep pullback.
  • They expect buyers below the 8-bar bull microchannel and want at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the leg’s extreme high (March 9), even if it only forms a lower high.
  • If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA or the March 10 low to act as support.
  • Bears see the move as a parabolic buy climax and a buy vacuum test of the 2022 high.
  • They see the current move (March 13) as a second leg sideways to up retesting the prior leg’s extreme high (March 9) and want it to form a lower high.
  • Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show they have regained control.
  • The market formed a parabolic buy climax and a buy vacuum overshooting the 2022 high, followed by a deep pullback. This was followed by a second leg sideways to up (March 13).
  • The large doji bar on Monday (March 9) indicates the market could be entering a trading range phase where traders Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
  • The market could still trade higher next week.
  • Traders will watch whether bulls can generate further follow-through buying to retest the March 9 high, followed by a breakout above it.
  • Or whether the market trades higher but stalls below the March 9 high and reverses with profit-taking instead.
  • Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.

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