Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market formed a large weekly Crude oil trading range, currently testing near the 20-week EMA. Bulls hope for buyers near the low of the one-bar trading range (March 10). Bears need to create strong bear bars trading below the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of a successful reversal.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick was a consecutive large bear bar closing in its lower half, with a prominent lower tail.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could create a follow-through bear bar or if the market would stall near the middle of the trading range and retest the March 9 high in the weeks ahead.
- Bulls see the current move as a deep pullback and want the 20-week EMA to act as support.
- They hope for a retest of the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- Bulls hope for buyers near the low of the one-bar trading range (March 10).
- Bears generated a strong pullback from a double top and a lower high major trend reversal.
- Bears need to create strong bear bars trading below the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of a successful reversal.
- If the market trades higher, bears want it to form a lower high, followed by another sideways-to-down leg.
- The market retested the prior high (April 7) and formed a deep pullback over the past 2 weeks.
- The market is testing near the bottom of the large one-bar trading range.
- Traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH)—buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
- The middle of the range can act as a magnet and area of balance.
- Traders will watch whether bears can create follow-through selling breaking below the 20-week EMA.
- Or will the market stall near the 20-week EMA and pull back to the middle of the range instead?
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
The Daily crude oil chart
- The market formed a second leg sideways to down, trading below the 20-day EMA.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could generate follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA or if the market would stall near it and retest the March 9 high.
- Bulls see the current move as a deep pullback and a bear leg within a trading range.
- They see the move forming a large double bottom bull flag (March 23 and April 17) and a wedge bull flag (April 8, April 15, and April 17).
- Bulls want the bottom of the large one-bar trading range near the March 10 low to act as support.
- Bulls want a retest of the March 9 high, even if it forms a lower high.
- Bears got a reversal from a double top and a lower high major trend reversal.
- The next target for the bears is the March 10 low, the start of the bull channel.
- Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a successful reversal.
- If the market trades higher, bears want the 20-day EMA or the April 13 high to act as resistance, forming a double top bear flag.
- The March 9 bar is a large one-bar trading range where traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH)—buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
- The market has transitioned into a large trading range.
- The market is trading near the low of the large trading range (March 10), a potential support area.
- The middle of the range can act as a magnet and area of balance.
- Traders will watch whether bears can generate follow-through selling breaking below the March 10 low area.
- Or will the market stall and retest the middle of the range or the April 13 high instead?
- Any escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East could accelerate or reverse the current move.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
